Price analysis 6/16: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, DOGE, XRP, DOT, UNI, LTC, BCH
7 min readBitcoin’s price (BTC) turned down from just above the $41,000 mark on June 15, suggesting that traders are halting their purchases at higher levels. Traders seem to be hesitant to take large bets until the U.S. Federal Reserve releases its latest economic projections and the timeline of the proposed rate hikes today.
However, Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro at Fidelity Investments believes that Bitcoin has bottomed out.
Another positive sign comes from a Q2 retail investment survey of high-frequency traders by the crypto firm Voyager Digital that shows 81% of the participants are confident about the future of cryptocurrency.
Another survey of 100 chief financial officers at hedge funds by Intertrust Global shows that about 98% of the respondents expect hedge funds to invest 7.2% of their assets in cryptocurrencies by 2026.
Related: Within five years, US hedge funds expect to hold 10.6% of assets in crypto
Given that there are large amounts of funds ready to flow into cryptocurrencies, another massive fall is unlikely. However, that does not mean a new bull market will start in a hurry. Most major cryptocurrencies may enter a bottoming formation before starting the next trending move.
Let’s analyze the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to determine the critical levels to watch out for.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin has been sustaining above the 20-day exponential moving average ($38,274) for the past three days but the bulls have not been able to thrust the price above the 200-day simple moving average ($42,678). This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.
The flattish 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. If bears pull the price below the 20-day EMA, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to $31,000 where buying may emerge.
A strong rebound off $31,000 will indicate that the pair may extend its consolidation for a few more days.
This neutral view will invalidate if the price rebounds off the current level and buyers drive the price above the 200-day SMA. Such a move will be the first sign that the correction may be over. If bulls sustain the price above the 200-day SMA for three days, the pair could rally to $51,483.
Alternatively, a break below $31,000 will suggest that bears have overpowered the bulls and the downtrend may resume.
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) has been trading inside a symmetrical triangle for the past few days, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. The bulls are buying near the support line of the triangle while the bears are selling near the resistance line.
A break above or below the triangle may result in a strong trending move but it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with certainty.
If bulls push and sustain the price above the resistance line of the triangle, it will indicate that the correction may be over. The ETH/USDT pair could then rally toward its pattern target at $3,684.
Conversely, if bears sink the price below the support line, the downtrend may resume. The bulls will try to stall the decline at the 200-day SMA ($1,831) but if this support also cracks, the next target objective is $1,347.
BNB/USDT
Binance Coin (BNB) has been stuck between the trendline and the 20-day EMA ($372) for the past few days. The gradually downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI below 44 suggest that bears have the upper hand.
If bears sink the price below the trendline, the BNB/USDT pair could drop to the 200-day SMA ($253). A break and close below this support could intensify the selling, and the pair could extend the decline to $200.
On the contrary, if the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could challenge the overhead resistance at $433. A breakout and close above this level will complete a bullish ascending triangle pattern, which has a target objective at $609.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) has been trading between $1.33 and $94 for the past few days. The altcoin rebounded off the support on June 12 but the bulls are struggling to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($1.58).
The gradually downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a minor advantage to the bears. If the price turns down from the current level, the bears will again try to sink the ADA/USDT pair below $1.33.
If they succeed, the pair could drop to the next critical support at $1. The bulls are likely to defend this level aggressively. A strong rebound off this support will suggest that the pair may consolidate inside the large range of $1 and $1.94 for a few days.
Conversely, if buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to $1.94. A breakout of this resistance will increase the possibility of the start of the next leg of the uptrend.
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading below the 20-day EMA ($0.34) for the past few days but the bears have not been able to sink the price below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. This suggests a lack of sellers at lower levels.
However, the 20-day EMA is sloping down and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating the path of least resistance is to the downside. The bears will make one more attempt to sink and sustain the price below the neckline.
If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could start its downward journey to the critical support at $0.21 and then to the 200-day SMA ($0.14). This negative view will invalidate if the bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA.
XRP/USDT
XRP has been trading between $1.07 and $0.75 for the past few days. The failure of the bulls to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.93) in the past few days suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.
The bears will now try to pull the price down to the support at $0.75. The 200-day SMA ($0.72) is just below the support, hence the bulls are likely to defend this level aggressively.
However, if the selling intensifies and bears sink the price below the 200-day SMA, the XRP/USDT pair could start a deeper decline to $0.56.
On the other hand, if the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to $1.07. A breakout and close above this resistance will indicate the downtrend may be over. The pair could then rally to the downtrend line.
DOT/USDT
Polkadot (DOT) rose to the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle on June 14 but the bulls could not thrust the price above it. This suggests that the bears have not given up yet and are selling on rallies to the resistance line.
If bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA ($23), the DOT/USDT pair could extend its stay inside the symmetrical triangle for a few more days. The flat moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint also signals a few days of consolidation.
A breakout and close above the triangle will be the first indication that the correction may be over. The pair may then rally to $31.28 and then to the pattern target at $39.78. Conversely, if bears sink the price below the support line, the pair may start the next leg of the downtrend that may open the doors for a decline to $15.
UNI/USDT
Uniswap (UNI) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($24.79) on June 15, which suggests the sentiment remains negative and the bears are selling on rallies to overhead resistances.
The sellers will now try to pull the price below the 200-day SMA ($21.87). If they manage to do that, the UNI/USDT pair could drop to $16.49 and then $13.04 as traders who have purchased in the past few days may rush to the exit.
Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the 200-day SMA, the buyers will try to propel the price above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair may rally to $30.
If the price turns down from this level, the pair may remain range-bound between $21.50 and $30 for a few more days. A breakout and close above $30 will suggest that the correction may be over.
LTC/USDT
Litecoin (LTC) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($180) on June 15, which shows that bears are selling on rallies. The 20-day EMA continues to slope down and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating an advantage to the bears.
The sellers will now try to sink the price below the support line. If they do that, the LTC/USDT pair could retest the May 23 low at $118.03. A break below this level could result in panic selling that may drag the price down to $70.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the support line, the bulls will again try to thrust the price above the moving averages. If they succeed, the pair could rise to $225. A break above this resistance could attract buyers.
BCH/USDT
The bulls could not propel Bitcoin Cash (BCH) above the downtrend line for the past two days, indicating that bears are defending the 20-day EMA ($662) aggressively.
The bears will now try to sustain the price below the 200-day SMA ($603) and challenge the $538.11 support. This is an important level to watch out for because if it cracks, the descending triangle will complete and the BCH/USDT pair could resume its down move.
The next support on the downside is at $400 and then $370. Conversely, if bulls thrust the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to $864.28 where the bears may again mount a stiff resistance.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
