Bitcoin rebound falters amid SEC crackdown on exchanges, raising chance of a BTC price capitulation

Bitcoin’s price lost steam after a failed retest of the $27,400 resistance on June 6, signaling that investors became less confident after the

Bitcoin bears aim for sub-$26,000 to increase their payout

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on June 9 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies depending on the expiry price.

The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

• Between $25,000 and $26,000: 100 calls vs. 5,100 puts. Bears in total control, profiting $125 million.
• Between $26,000 and $27,000: 1,500 calls vs. 3,900 puts. The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $65 million.
• Between $27,000 and $28,000: 4,200 calls vs. 1,300 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $80 million.
• Between $28,000 and $29,000: 8,700 calls vs. 700 puts. The net result favors call (bull) instruments by $225 million.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. This oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Given that Bitcoin longs using futures contracts were liquidated to the tune of $100 million on June 5, bulls might have less margin required to try pumping the BTC price above the $27,000 mark. Consequently, bears seem closer to scoring a decent profit on Friday’s options expiry.