BlackRock insiders say Bitcoin ETF is likely 6 months away: Novogratz

The United States’ first spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) could be approved sometime before February 2024, according to Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz — citing sources at BlackRock and Invesco.

“It’s a big, big deal. It’s a big deal because both our contacts, from the Invesco side and from the BlackRock side, get you to think that this is a question of when, not if — that the outside window is probably six months,” Novogratz told shareholders during Galaxy’s Aug. 8 Q2 earnings call, which reported a $46 million net loss.

“This is probably […] four to six months if you had to put a ‘pin the tail on the donkey’ on it, that the SEC is going to approve a Bitcoin ETF.”

Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital is one of the many contenders for a spot Bitcoin ETF, which it reapplied for in June in conjunction with $1.5 trillion asset manager Invesco — the fourth-largest ETF issuer in the U.S.

According to “contacts” from inside BlackRock and Invesco spot Bitcoin ETF approval a matter of “when, not if” likely in “four to six months” — Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz on earnings call this morning pic.twitter.com/TIhHC7xnHI

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 8, 2023

Speaking to shareholders, Novogratz said he didn’t have a comment on the expected timing of the ETF’s approval, which is an unknown as it sits with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

However, Novogratz believes that once approved, spot Bitcoin ETF issuers such as BlackRock and Invesco will be fighting tooth and nail for market share.

“The news of both BlackRock filing ETF and quite frankly, Invesco Plus Galaxy, we’re going to fight like cats and dogs to win market share there once it gets approved.”

In response to a question, Galaxy Digital president Chris Ferraro added he wouldn’t be surprised if the SEC ends up approving a potential Bitcoin ETF to avoid being labeled as “obstructionist.”

“I think that’s where the potential ETF approval comes in saying, hey, you can’t call us anti-crypto, we just approved an ETF. And so we’re hoping that that’s the same for our filing,” said Ferraro.

Or, even earlier

Meanwhile, some analysts believe the wave of spot Bitcoin ETFs could come even sooner, depending on how a judge rules in Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC.

Grayscale last year sued the SEC for rejecting its application to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a spot ETF.

“If the SEC loses its case against @Grayscale, as we expect, the path of least resistance would be a wave of simultaneous approvals for all spot #Bitcoin ETF applicants — including Grayscale and the other eight active filings.” @NYCStein in @Bloomberg today. Cc @EricBalchunas… pic.twitter.com/k72W6Ek7RK

— Craig Salm (@CraigSalm) August 2, 2023

Analysts believe that should the SEC lose its case against Grayscale, the “path of least resistance” would be simultaneous approvals for several or all spot Bitcoin ETF applicants.

Journeys: H ervé Larren on Bitcoin, Apes and the psychology of ‘blue-chip’ NFTs