Grayscale Bitcoin ETF decision could happen this week, pundits say

Grayscale Investments, which has been seeking to convert its Bitcoin (BTC) trust into a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, could be getting a decision on its lawsuit against the federal securities regulator before the week’s end.

In an Aug. 11 tweet, Scott Johnsson, a general partner of Van Buren Capital, explained that law clerks in the United States District Courts generally cycle out in August, pushing judges to clear out the caseload “before the new guard arrives.”

He noted that 30 out of 32 cases in March of 2021 and 2022 were heard by United States District Courts within 160 days of oral testimony, which also landed them in August, adding that it has also been 160 days since Grayscale delivered its oral arguments in its suit against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on March 7.

March ’21/’22 cases with decisions within 160 days of oral: 30/32 (94%)

Days since Grayscale (March ’23) oral: 160 days

Why should we expect August? Because law clerks for DC generally cycle in/out this month, so judges aim to clear prior caseload before the new guard arrives. https://t.co/vVj0dHus90

— Scott Johnsson (@SGJohnsson) August 14, 2023

As of now, including Grayscale, there are only a small number of unresolved March-argued cases that remain, Johnsson added.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart says the decision could even come as early as Aug. 15, noting the date has been his “theoretical Grayscale lawsuit decision date” for some time.

8/15 has been my theoretical Grayscale lawsuit decision date for a while now but it’s really just an educated guess. I didn’t even do detailed analysis on the court decisions like @SGJohnsson did. But I did a little bit of it and also had convos with @NYCStein about timelines

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 14, 2023

Johnsson added in his thread that Seyffart’s prediction is a “pretty decently good bet.”

In June 2022, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rejected Grayscale’s application to convert its GBTC to a spot Bitcoin ETF.

In response, Grayscale sued the securities regulator, saying it was acting arbitrarily by failing to apply consistent treatment to similar investment vehicles.

A number of industry commentators, including ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood and ETF analyst Nate Geraci, have tipped Grayscale to win the lawsuit.

A lot of noise out there, so here’s my formal prediction on spot bitcoin ETF…

First, I think Grayscale wins lawsuit.

Second, combo of Grayscale lawsuit win + COIN SSA is enough for SEC approval IMO.

In other words, I think we’re getting a spot bitcoin ETF. Like close to 100%.

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) August 9, 2023

Grayscale recently voiced that the SEC should approve all Bitcoin spot ETF applications simultaneously to prevent firms from having an advantage over other applicants.

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