Bitcoin heads for red September, but analysts tip October as ‘days to watch’

Bitcoin investors may be in for a rollercoaster ride. While history shows September is typically a bumpy month for Bitcoin — two ETF analysts have suggested investors turn their gaze to mid-October as the next “major days to watch.”

According to historical data, Bitcoin’s monthly returns have closed in the red at the end of September nine times over the course of the last 13 years.

Popular crypto analyst Will Clemente informed his 689,000 X followers that September has had the “least number of positive-returning months” and is on a six-year negative-returning streak.

Bitcoin’s returns broken down by months

September has had the least number of positive-returning months at just two and is on a 6-year negative-returning streak. pic.twitter.com/4VqZkMubm3

— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) August 31, 2023

There are a number of other factors that point to a bumpy road ahead in September as well, with monitoring resource Material Indicators warning that a “full retrace” of gains made the wake of Grayscale’s victory over the SEC was a likely course of action for the largest cryptocurrency moving forward.

TLDR: Trend Precognition signals ⬇️ on the D chart Prepare to round trip the range
BTC >$27,760 invalidates the signal
BTC <$24,750 paves the road to #Bearadise

To expand on what @TradingParrot shared earlier, on the #Bitcoin D candle Close/Open, Trend Precognition presented a… pic.twitter.com/sX3Bqj3v57

— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) August 31, 2023

Looking ahead, however, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart has urged investors to look to mid-October, which is the second decision deadline for the SEC for seven pending spot Bitcoin ETFs — specifically BlackRock, Bitwise, Valkyrie, WisdomTree, VanEck, iShares and Invesco.

NEXT DATES TO WATCH:

Middle of October are the next major days to watch. Namely October 16th. (& @GlobalXETFs‘ Oct 7)

Also, reminder that we fully expected delays on this round of spot #Bitcoin ETF filings. Would have been a shock if they were approved this week. pic.twitter.com/i14fg8FWun

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 31, 2023

On Aug. 30, Seyffart and fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pinned the chances of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the end of this year at 75%. The mid-October dates would be the last deadline for the SEC, at least in 2023.

Additionally, Seyffart noted that delays on the most recent round of spot Bitcoin ETF filings were widely expected and that he would’ve been shocked if they were approved in the first round of deadlines this past week.

After surging briefly on the Grayscale news, the price of Bitcoin has since fallen 4.5% in the past 24 hours and is currently changing hands for $26,066, according to data from CoinGecko.

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