$100,000 BTC? Don’t undervalue Bitcoin ETF influence, says Adam Back

The COVID-19 pandemic, rampant inflation and regional conflicts directly influenced Bitcoin’s (

The Blockstream CEO predicted that Bitcoin would hit $100,000 in the following market cycle earlier this year and referred back to this point. He believes BTC would have hit this mark already if not for the factors highlighted in conversation with Cointelegraph.

Back also referred to the Bitcoin “stock-to-flow” model created by pseudonymous former institutional investor PlanB as a reference point for the potential upside for Bitcoin in 2024.

If you want to know more about bitcoin Stock-to-Flow:
* This is the original 2019 article:https://t.co/n5P5uMCKHT
* Or watch this YouTube video:https://t.co/3SGMU1Ln00 pic.twitter.com/Qp8SjqtXIB

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) December 5, 2023

Back explains that PlanB’s model and heuristics suggest that savvy Bitcoin investors historically bought BTC six months before a halving event and sold into significant surges in price that have occurred in the 18 months following the drop in mining rewards:

“People thought it was a bit of a crazy assertion that we might get to $100,000 pre-halving because I said it when the price was around $20,000.”

He adds that Bitcoin’s price hitting $44,000 multiple times in Dec. 2023 suggests that his prior prediction might not be so far-fetched.

The Bitcoin ETF effect

Prominent investors and market analysts have also highlighted the effect of the potential approval of several spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETFs) applications by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

People asking me if we changed odds. No, we still holding line at 90% odds of approval by Jan 10 (aka this cycle), the same odds we’ve had for months (before it was cool/safe). What we watching for now: more amended/final filings to roll in and clarity on in-kind vs cash creates https://t.co/uiWgfxOfzz

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) November 29, 2023

Senior ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have touted these applications to get the green light in early 2024. Galaxy Digital’s co-founder Michael Novogratz has also predicted mass inflows of institutional investment into the BTC-back products, a point which Back echoes:

“I think Bitcoin could get to $100,000 even before the ETF and before the halving. But I certainly think the ETF shouldn’t be undervalued in its influence.”

A key reason cited by the Bitcoin advocate is that whole segments of traditional markets, including major fund managers like BlackRock and Fidelity, are simply not allowed to invest directly into assets like Bitcoin.

“If they’re managing a mutual fund they have rules, either externally imposed or as part of their fund, that they can only buy things like public stocks and ETFs. They can’t buy into startups, they can’t buy precious metals physically. They can’t do any of that stuff,” Back highlights.

This remains a pertinent reason why a spot Bitcoin ETF could drive major capital inflows into the space. Back adds that the investment vehicle opens access to Bitcoin exposure for many types of funds, particularly in the U.S., that are more inclined to do so through Fidelity or BlackRock than with a cryptocurrency exchange.

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