Here are the 5 things we’re watching in the stock market in the week ahead
7 min read
After a muted few days for the market, investors in the week ahead will grapple with the fallout of the United States’ decision to enter Israel’s war with Iran. Here’s a closer look at the five big things we’re watching in the market in the week ahead. 1. Geopolitics: President Donald Trump said Saturday night that the U.S. attacked Iranian nuclear sites , including the Fordo facility built into the side of a mountain. Iran’s foreign minister called America’s strikes “outrageous,” and said the country reserves all options to defend itself. Investors had spent much of last week trying to gauge whether Trump would bring the U.S. military directly involved in the Israel-Iran conflict. Through Friday’s market close, the impact on stocks had been largely muted, as investors bet the back-and-forth strikes between the longtime regional foes would not spillover into a broader conflagration that meaningfully dents economic growth — as analysts at Deutsche Bank pointed out , that has historically been what it takes for geopolitics to really matter to the market long-term. In the wake of direct U.S. military involvement, one of the big questions for investors is what happens to the price of oil. Iran’s response to the American bombings could influence that. Any developments that meaningfully disrupt oil supply, including the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route, could lead to further price spikes. In any case, the commodity figures to remain a crucial barometer for how traders are evaluating the Middle East situation, and even absent supply disruptions, the market could price in a higher “risk premium,” putting upward pressure on prices. 2. Inflation data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index — is set to be released Friday morning, offering the latest look at how Trump’s tariffs are rippling through the U.S. economy. A different measure of inflation, the consumer price index (CPI), rose a less-than-expected 0.1% month over month in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported June 11 . That put the annual inflation rate, as measured by the CPI, at 2.4%. The Fed puts greater focus on the PCE index because it believes the metric does a better job of capturing actual consumer spending patterns, particularly in response to price changes. The Fed has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. While Trump’s tariffs have yet to show a major impact on official inflation statistics, the Fed has adopted a patient stance and kept interest rates steady at its policy meeting last week , just as it did in early May . The central bank argues the full effect of tariffs hasn’t yet been felt and the labor market has remained resilient enough to wait for more data. “It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer. A good example of that would be goods being sold at retailers today may have been imported several months ago before tariffs were imposed. So we’re beginning to see some effects, and we do expect to see more of them over the coming months,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the Fed’s meeting Wednesday. Nevertheless, members of the Fed’s policymaking arm still expect the central bank to cut interest rates twice this year, according to projections released Wednesday. That’s unchanged from their outlook in March. Powell stresses that the Fed will be “data dependent” in making policy, and the PCE index — both Friday’s release and future ones in the coming months — are the kind of data inputs that may sway their thinking. On Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank could cut rates as early as July , though it’s unclear how widely held his view is among monetary policymakers. 3. Housing: There’s a slew of housing data out this week, starting Monday morning with existing home sales, followed by the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Home Price Index on Tuesday and new home sales on Wednesday. KB Home also will report earnings on Monday night. Those releases come on the heels of last week’s May housing starts data, which dropped 9.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.256 million, the lowest since May 2020 in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. Lennar’s earnings report last week also showed subdued activity , with the homebuilder leaning on incentives to gin up demand. The housing market is always important to follow because it’s an important part of the U.S. economy — in fact, Jim Cramer argues it punches above its weight because a lot of related purchases get made when someone moves, such as buying a new TV and furniture to fit the new space. And yet, housing has seemingly become an even bigger focus lately, given there’s concern about a slowing economic activity overall and stubbornly high mortgage rates are crimping activity and straining affordability; indeed, shelter inflation remains sticky. When it comes to this week’s releases, one thing to watch will be the housing inventory data contained in the National Association of Realtors’ existing home sales report. That has increased in every month of the year and were at nearly five-year highs in April, which is encouraging on paper because more inventory should help bring prices down. In practice, we haven’t seen that at the national level, though prices did drop in April in the southern and western U.S. markets, according to NAR data . We’ll see how these dynamics played out in May. The FHFA’s pricing data on Tuesday will complement the picture from the NAR. 4. Trial data: On Monday, Club name Eli Lilly is set to present the results of a midstage trial on one of its next-generation weight-loss drugs called bimagrumab. Lilly acquired the asset as part of its Versanis Bio takeover in 2023 , and the belief is that bimagrumab taken alongside traditional GLP-1 drugs can help patients preserve muscle mass while still losing fat. Among the concerns about GLP-1s is that people on the drugs lose muscle, not just fat, which can slow down their metabolism. An interesting wrinkle to Monday’s presentation is that it focuses on a trial that studied bimagrumab in conjunction with rival Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy. The trial was already underway when Lilly bought Versanis. Lilly is pursuing studies that look at bimagrumab used with its tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Zepbound. 5. Earnings: There are no Club holdings reporting earnings in the week ahead, but there are a few other releases on our radar as read-throughs into the economy and consumer. Those include FedEx , which reports Tuesday night and has historically been looked at as a barometer for economic activity. After the close Wednesday, we’ll hear from Ohio-based Worthington Steel , which should shine light on the impact of Trump’s steel tariffs on pricing and demand, and the investment bank Jefferies , whose management team should provide color on the dealmaking environment, with implications for Club name Goldman Sachs . Micron , which is among the suppliers of advanced memory chips for Club holding Nvidia’s cutting-edge AI processors, also reports Wednesday night. We’ll be listening closely for commentary on demand. Week ahead Monday, June 23 Lilly’s bimagrumab presentation at 9 a.m. ET Existing home sales at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Commercial Metals (CMC), FactSet Research Systems (FDS) After the close: KB Home (KBH) Tuesday, June 24 FHFA Home Price Index at 9 a.m. ET Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Carnival Corp. (CCL), TD Synnex (SNX) After the bell: FedEx (FDX), BlackBerry (BB), Worthington Industries (WOR), AeroVironment (AVAV) Wednesday, June 25 New home sales at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: General Mills (GIS), Paychex (PAYX), Winnebago Industries (WGO) After the bell: Micron Technology (MU), Jefferies Financial Group (JEF), H.B. Fuller (FUL), Worthington Steel (WS), MillerKnoll (MLKN), Steelcase (SCS) Thursday, June 26 Final reading of first-quarter GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET New orders for durable goods at 8:30 a.m. ET Initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET Pending home sales at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Acuity Brands (AYI), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), McCormick & Co. (MKC) After the bell: Nike (NKE), Concentrix Corporation (CNXC) Friday, June 27 Personal Consumption Expenditures Index at 8:30 a.m. ET Before the bell: Apogee Enterprises (APOG) (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long LLY, GS and NVDA. See here for a full list of the stocks .) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. 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