Virginia gubernatorial election signaling change

Gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger is attempting to put the Democrats fully in charge with a win in Virginia’s election next week, while also hoping to send a message to the whole country.

“We are a bellwether state, and I don’t want to just win. I want to crush it,” she said during a campaign speech in Albemarle County.

Spanberger represented the commonwealth’s 7th congressional district, a large swath lying southwest of the heavily populated Northern Virginia region, from 2019-2025. 

Winsome Earle-Sears is representing the Republicans and for the past four years has been serving as Lt. Gov. under Gov. Glen Youngkin, whose term ends in January. 

While Youngkin remains a loyal supporter of President Trump, Earle-Sears called him a “liability” to the party in 2022, and so far, has not received Trump’s endorsement for governor. 

Spanberger touts her ability to reach across party lines. She’s anti-tariff and promises to “leverage Virginia’s assets including the Port of Virginia and Dulles International Airport to embrace our Commonwealth’s role as a gateway to global markets.”  

Earle-Sears is on the record suggesting the state’s reserve fund could be tapped to shore up Medicaid payments affected by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. 

According to Secretary of Finance for the Commonwealth of Virginia, the reserve fund balances as of August 2024, are $4.7 billion which exceeds the statutory cap of 15% of the budget, measuring out at 17.4%

The strong balance sheet includes $8 billion being returned to taxpayers in the form of increased standard deductions, eliminated grocery taxes, rebates, and tax reductions on military retirement pay. 

Earlier in her campaign Earl-Sears promised to end the state’s personal property tax on vehicles. 

“I can’t stand the car tax. You buy a car, pay the sales tax, and then every year the government hits you again just for owning it? That’s ridiculous. As governor, I’ll axe the car tax for good,” she said via a Facebook post. 

The tax is unpopular with voters, but it also generates about $3 billion a year that’s funneled to cities and counties.  

Youngkin made two unsuccessful attempts to eliminate the tax but was thwarted by the Democratically-controlled General Assembly. 

Data centers and the energy that powers them could also play a role in the election. 

“We need clean coal, we need oil, we need nuclear, we need natural gas, and we need, yes, renewables,” said Earle-Sears.

“My opponent’s only plan is solar and wind. Well, what happens when the sun goes down?”

According to a state-authored report data centers contribute 74,000 direct and indirect jobs and pump $9.1 billion into the state’s gross domestic product annually. 

Data centers can also spur bond sales as utilities scale up infrastructure to meet increased demand.

They can also inflate credit risk for municipalities charged with providing enough water to keep them cool. 

The polls currently have Spanberger ahead, but controversial text messages written by Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones in 2022, are threatening to split the ticket.