Ethereum price analysis: ETH ‘seconds away’ from breakout toward $4.4K
2 min read
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is “seconds away” from entering a convincing breakout stage, according to analyst Kamran Asghar.
Key takeaways:
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Ethereum is nearing a breakout from a falling wedge, with a target of $4,400.
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A bullish crossover in Ethe’s MACD indicator supports the short-term upside outlook.
ETH price may rise above $4,400 by mid-December
As of Wednesday, ETH painted a textbook falling wedge structure while its Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator signaled a bull cross.
The falling wedge typically suggests that bearish momentum is fading. In Ether’s case, the structure has been developing since early October and is now approaching a breakout point near $3,560, which also aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.
A decisive move above this resistance could confirm a breakout, setting the stage for a rally toward $4,415 by mid-December, which is roughly 25% higher than current levels.
The target corresponds to the 0.786 Fib level, which previously acted as a key resistance zone.
Adding weight to the bullish outlook, Asghar highlighted that Ethereum’s MACD, a momentum indicator, is “seconds away” from completing a bullish crossover.
The MACD compares two moving averages to detect shifts in trend strength. When the faster blue line crosses above the slower orange line, it suggests that buying pressure is overtaking selling momentum.
Historically, similar MACD flips during consolidation phases have preceded both short-term and long-term rallies for ETH.
What could change the bullish view?
A pullback from the wedge’s upper trendline, however, risks invalidating the breakout setup, instead pushing ETH’s price toward the lower trendline, which is around the $3,000-3,200 range.
In the worst-case scenario, the price may consolidate until it reaches the apex of the wedge, where its two trendlines converge, at around $2,710.
Ethereum’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands indicate a downside outlook, suggesting that ETH may slip toward its –0.5σ band (teal) at around $2,870 after closing below its mean valuation level.
Throughout Ether’s history, similar breakdowns below the mean band have preceded extended sell-offs, often pushing ETH’s price to or below the teal– 0.5σ band before a recovery began.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
