Sorry, Moonvember hopefuls, macro uncertainty signals sideways month

November might not turn out to be Bitcoin’s saving grace after all, as crypto analysts signal the cryptocurrency could break from its historically strong price gains in November and instead trade sideways.

“The current macro backdrop easing policy, but mixed communication from the Fed, supports consolidation as a necessary stabilising phase before volatility can expand again,” Bitfinex analysts

Bitfinex analysts said that Bitcoin (BTC) optimists may start to become less patient if the price doesn’t return above $116,000. “They are showing signs of waning conviction,” the analysts said, pointing to the ongoing sellers among long-term holders.

“Unless the price recovers decisively above this range, time becomes a growing headwind for bulls.”

Bitcoin is trading at $103,000 at the time of publication, down almost 3% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.

However, not all analysts are anticipating muted price action as November has traditionally been a strong month for Bitcoin to gain.

November typically Bitcoin’s strongest month

Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 41.78% gain during November, according to CoinGlass. Some analysts suggest that history will repeat itself.

Crypto trader Dave Weisberger said Bitcoin’s “fundamentals are strong.”

“Context is VERY constructive relative to previous’ cycles’ and we are at the BOTTOM, not the top of the range, relative to other financial assets,” he said.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Carl Runefelt said in an X post on Tuesday that “November will turn green again for Bitcoin soon.”

“Those big green candles are coming,” he said. Similarly, crypto trader AshCrypto said he is “still bullish.”

However, Bitcoin has not been able to regain the same momentum after reaching new all-time highs of $125,100 in early October, following the Oct. 10 market crash that wiped out around $19 billion in leveraged positions from the crypto market.

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