November issuance puts 2025 over the top for record

November issuance surged as mega deals and higher project costs pushed supply this year to a record high.

Issuance year-to-date is $535.15 billion, up 11.5% from $479.829 billion over the same period in 2024. This officially tops 2024’s record $507.585 billion volume.

November volume was $38.487 billion, up 51.1% from $25.47 billion in 2024, and above November’s 10-year average of $33.743 billion.

While issuance rose in November 2025, the figure appears inflated as November 2024 — the only month last year with issuance under $30 billion — saw little issuance, said Alice Cheng, director of municipal credit and investor strategy at Janney.

In October 2024, issuers tapped the municipal market en masse to get ahead of potential election-related volatility, leading to an acceleration of deals. This meant that in the following month, November 2024, supply was relatively light, thereby skewing the percent change year-over-year higher, she said.

Despite this, supply has had “good momentum” this year, and given October’s performance, “everybody, issuer and investor, both on the supply and demand side, [are] trying to capture the value. So there’s a lot of interest. There’s a lot of money that needs to be invested and to play,” Cheng said.

Additionally, November still boasted sizable deals, including an estimated $3.48 billion from Ascension, a Catholic nonprofit health system, across four deals.

This was one of the biggest deals of the month, contributing to the rise in healthcare and general purpose issuance, which were up 39.6% and 119.4% respectively.

The former was also impacted by the acceleration of healthcare issuance, as significant cuts to Medicaid, which could impact hospital profitability, have led to frontloading of issuance to get ahead of the matter, a theme that has been ongoing this year, said Bill Delahunty, a portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

Additionally, rising inflation played a role in the surge of supply, both in November and for the year overall. The consumer price index is up 23%, while the national highway construction cost index is up over 60%, Delahunty said.

“There is a lot of deferred infrastructure in this country and when you do go to issue debt to fund some of that projects just cost a lot more and that’s what’s driving issuance up as well,” he said.

Supply this month has been well absorbed, especially on the retail side, said Bill Walsh, president of Hennion & Walsh.

November is normally a “weird” month for buyers and the street can slow down a little, but there was demand from retail buyers in November, he said.

For the past 10 to 15 years, there has been retail demand even if there shouldn’t be, as activity slows down around the holidays, Walsh said.

For the remainder of the year, issuance will mostly be “rolled” into the first two weeks of the month, Delahunty said.

Afterward, issuance will slow. “This is a time where all the action should be happening, and then as we enter into the holiday season it’s just going to drop off,” Cheng said.

For 2026, issuance predictions range from Barclays’ forecast of $520 billion to $530 billion to investor and strategist James Pruskowski’s estimate of over $750 billion. Cheng, for her part, sees issuance between $605 billion and $650 billion.

New-money issuance will tick up next year by $20 billion to $30 billion, partially due to the estimated loss of federal grants to states and local governments, along with higher construction costs, she said.

Refundings will also be up next year, as lower and more favorable interest rates are creating more refunding opportunities, she said.

November details
Tax-exempt issuance surged 58.9% to $34.537 billion in 726 issues from $21.731 billion in 623 issues a year ago. Taxable issuance dropped 23% to $1.346 billion in 52 issues from $1.747 billion in 68 issues in 2024. AMT issuance was $2.605 billion, up 30.7% from $1.992 billion in 2024.

New-money issuance rose 51.1% to $29.949 billion from $19.827 billion, while refundings were up 46.9% to $4.92 billion from $3.349 billion.

Revenue bond issuance increased 59.4% to $29.322 billion from $18.397 billion in November 2024, and general obligation bond sales rose 29.6% to $9.165 billion from $7.073 billion in 2024.

Negotiated deal volume jumped 62% to $32.474 billion from $20.045 billion a year prior. Competitive sales rose 28.2% to $5.834 billion from $4.55 billion in 2024.

Bond insurance increased 38.8% to $3.854 billion from $2.776 billion.

Bank-qualified issuance was up 15.8% to $1.041 billion in 241 deals from $898.8 million in 198 deals a year prior.

Texas claimed the top spot year-to-date among states.

Issuers in the Lone Star State accounted for $77.91 billion, up 17% year-over-year. California was second with $76.171 billion, up 9.9%. New York was third with $57.537 billion, up 7%, followed by Florida in fourth with $22.732 billion, down 11%, and Illinois in fifth with $17.741 billion, a 23% increase from the same period in 2024.

Rounding out the top 10: Alabama with $16.829 billion, up 33.1%; Massachusetts with $16.153 billion, up 20.3%; Wisconsin with $16.076 billion, up 50.1%; Pennsylvania with $15.69 billion, down 3.6%; and Colorado with $12.993 billion, up 28.4%.