Bitcoin rejects at key $93.5K as Fed rate-cut bets meet ‘strong’ bear case

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped from the 2025 yearly open into Thursday’s Wall Street trading session as markets reacted to US jobs data.

Key points:

• Strong US labor-market data fails to dent hopes of a December Fed rate cut.

• Crypto continues to diverge from stocks amid predictions of a strong finish to 2025 for the latter.

• Bitcoin has multiple key resistance levels to reclaim in order to flip the bearish status quo.

Fed has “no option” over rate cut

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action weakening on surprisingly low US jobless claims.

Both initial and ongoing claims came in below expectations on the day, per data from the St. Louis Fed. 

Despite this signal of labor market strengthening, and hence economic resilience, markets doubled down on expectations that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates at its Dec. 10 meeting.

The reason, analysis argued, was a widening gap between risk assets and consumer strength.

“The Fed has no option: Even as inflation hits 3%, the Fed MUST cut rates to ‘save’ US consumers,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in its latest commentary on X. 

“Consumers are struggling while large cap tech stocks are soaring. More rate CUTS are coming into one of the hottest stock markets in history. Own assets or be left behind.”

A cut would notionally support further liquidity inflows into crypto and risk assets. As Cointelegraph reported, even the risk of Japan hiking rates in the near future represented a contradictory move, as its central bank finalized a $135 billion economic stimulus injection.

Kobeissi described the Japanese situation as a “free-for-all.”

“Japan is printing stimulus, yet raising rates? Something is broken,” it summarized alongside a print of record-high 30-year bonds.

Continuing, trading outfit Mosaic Asset Company nonetheless warned that future Fed rate cuts were far from guaranteed despite market optimism.

“While market-implied odds point to an 89% chance of a third consecutive rate cut, deep divisions are emerging on the forward path of interest rates,” it wrote in a blog post on the day. 

“While that could inject volatility into the stock market, underlying market internals are evolving very favorably for a rally into year-end.”

Analysis: Bitcoin bear case “remains strong”

With the S&P 500 just 0.5% off new all-time highs, Bitcoin and altcoins continued to stand out as weak players.

Related: Bitcoin looks increasingly like it did in 2022: Can BTC price avoid $68K?

Among traders, multiple resistance levels that need to be reclaimed lie on the horizon. 

Along with the $93,500 yearly open, points of interest included liquidity closer to $100,000, as well as the 50-week simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving averages.

“Looking for a retest at the 50-Week SMA, but need to clear resistance in the $96k – $98k range first,” trading resource Material Indicators told X followers alongside a chart of Binance order-book liquidity data. 

“Too soon to call this a bull market recovery. Need to clear those resistance levels with a healthy RSI at the Weekly Close before we can have that conversation.”

In a subsequent post, Material Indicators said that Bitcoin failing to flip the yearly open so far was an “indication that the bear thesis remains strong.”

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on various BTC price indicators seeking to draw a line under the market’s latest bearish phase.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.