Northeast reflects national muni volume gain in first half
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Northeast municipal bond volume matched the nation’s gain in the first half of 2025, though the gains weren’t evenly spread among states or sectors.
Municipal issuers in the northeast sold $72.25 billion of bonds in the first half, up 14.7% overall compared to the
The first half of the year was also heavily influenced by federal policy uncertainty, from volatility created by President Trump’s erratic tariffs to fears of losing the municipal bond tax exemption.
Nationally, issuers sold $281.8 billion of bonds in the first half of 2025. That’s a 14.7% increase, in line with the Northeast.
In the first quarter, Northeast issuers sold $28.09 billion of bonds, down 10% from last year’s first quarter. It’s also a $9.22 billion drop from the fourth quarter of 2024. Issuance soared for the second quarter to $44.17 billion, nearly a 40% increase from the second quarter of 2024.
The gains in the Northeast were driven by new money and large GO deals.
New money volume was up by 32.3% over the first half of 2024, to $61.08 billion compared to last year’s $46.16 billion. Refunding issuance was down by 37.5% to $5.85 billion. Deals that LSEG categorizes as “combined” new money/refunding were down 28.6%, to $5.32 billion.
“New money issuance is oftentimes driven by whether or not entities feel their balance sheets are in a position where they can service that debt over a long period of time,” said Tom Kozlik, head of municipal strategy at Hilltop Securities. “Balance sheets are pretty healthy, and that’s something that definitely is a result of 2021 fiscal policy that, in some cases, is still propping up general funds.”
The decrease in refundings is mostly based on rates, according to John Hallacy, founder of John Hallacy Consulting. While rates have been “benign” so far this year, he said, they would need to drop a “tremendous” amount to spur growth in refundings.
Revenue bonds were basically flat at $46.55 billion in the region, but general obligation bonds soared by 51.7% to $25.71 billion, according to LSEG’s data.
Bonds categorized by LSEG as “general purpose” increased nearly $10 billion to $29.2 billion. Housing bonds stayed mostly level, at $6.8 billion, and environmental facilities bonds increased from $56 million to $203 million.
The education sector had a very strong showing. Volume increased 64%, from $9.7 billion to $15.9 billion.
Kozlik attributed some of this increase to stronger pension funding. Ten to fifteen years ago, he said, the need to fund pensions was “crowding out” a lot of governments’ capital spending. Now, pension funds are stronger, and issuers feel “their balance sheets aren’t as susceptible to a downside,” Kozlik said.
Other Northeast sectors had lower year-over-year volume in the first half. Bonds for transportation dropped by 31.4%, to $9.5 billion. Transportation bonds had increased by 85% from the first half of 2023 to the first half of 2024.
Kozlik said the 2025 drop is partly because 2024 was such a strong year, and issuers filled a lot of their transportation needs. Issuers may have also been influenced by “confusion about what the new administration’s approach was going to be,” Hallacy said.
“When we’re talking about eliminating all kinds of funding, I think people were rightfully concerned about what kind of funding or projects might be eliminated. And obviously, the feds pulled the funding
In the first half of last year, the Northeast’s volume grew by more than any other region’s. This year, it was closer to the middle of the pack. And while nearly every state in the region saw an increase in its issuance in 2024, this year, the results were mixed.
New York had the highest total volume, as always. The Empire State’s issuers sold $30.09 billion of bonds, a 6.6% over last year’s $28.22 billion.
Pennsylvania’s issuers sold $9.83 billion, compared to $5.209 billion last year. Maryland and Connecticut also saw big gains relative to last year, pricing $5.64 billion and $3.74 billion, respectively. The District of Columbia’s volume increased the most, with its issuers pricing $2.9 billion compared to last year’s $1 billion.
Massachusetts, often the region’s second-biggest issuer, fell to third as its volume dropped by 16.4%. Issuers in the commonwealth issued just $8.38 billion in the first half of the year, compared to last year’s $10 billion. Rhode Island and Delaware’s volume also decreased; Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have not issued any bonds so far this year.
The top issuers in the first half of the year were familiar faces. The Dormitory Authority of the State of New York issued the most bonds, credited by LSEG with $6.67 billion. Next was the New York City Transitional Finance Authority, which priced $5.24 billion, and New York City came in third, with $4.93 billion.
These issuers sold significantly more than they did in the first half of last year. When DASNY was the top issuer in the first half of 2024, it priced just $4.8 billion.
Fourth place was the Massachusetts Development Finance Agency, which priced $3.4 billion in 22 deals. The Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority came in fifth with $3.3 billion.
The District of Columbia was a newcomer to the top ten list, claiming the eighth place spot with $2.06 billion. The ninth-biggest issuer, the New Jersey Turnpike Authority, was also new. It priced its $1.9 billion of bonds in
Much of the Northeast’s 2025 volume has been driven by mega-deals. Issuers in the region priced 16 deals over $1 billion in the first half of 2025. Ten of those deals were from issuers in New York.
“Our issuance really is driven by what the city’s aggregate capital spending is going to be year-to-year,” said Jay Olson, New York City’s deputy comptroller for public finance. Even in the
There were months this year when New York City and state issuers were the only Northeast issuers bringing billion-dollar deals to market. Olson said he tries to keep a narrow focus on the city’s capital needs, rather than worrying about the rest of the marketplace. The exception is New York state, where the city is “effectively competing for the same investor base.”
“To the extent we could be not on the same day, that is preferable,” Olson said. “But given the sheer volume of what we need to do, dictated by the capital program, there aren’t many places to move that aren’t already occupied.”
The biggest deal of first half was DASNY’s $2.04 billion personal income tax revenue bonds. The
The Northeast’s second biggest deal of the half was the NYC TFA’s $1.95 billion of future tax secured subordinate bonds, which priced on Feb. 13. The deal was managed by Siebert Williams Shank.
In third place was New York City’s $1.75 billion April GO deal, lead managed by RBC Capital Markets. It was followed by the New York Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority’s $1.6 billion
The fifth biggest deal in the Northeast was from Maryland. Its
The first half of the year saw 69% more taxable volume from the Northeast, to $7.7 billion. Tax-exempt deals increased as well, by 16% to $62.7 billion. Competitive deals also increased by more than $6 billion compared to the first half of last year, to a total of $16.1 billion.
The top managing underwriter in the Northeast was BofA Securities, credited by LSEG with $12.9 billion across 71 issues. RBC Capital Markets came in second, with $9.26 billion, followed by Jefferies, with $6.3 billion; Wells Fargo, with $5.989 billion; and J. P. Morgan Securities, with $5.969 billion.
Bryant Rabbino was once again the Northeast’s top bond counsel, credited with $7.06 billion across 26 issues, according to LSEG. The runner-up, Troutman Pepper Locke, is credited with $5.49 billion and 88 issues. Norton Rose Fulbright was the third ranked bond counsel, followed by Hawkins Delafield & Wood and Nixon Peabody.
The rankings for top municipal advisors were mostly unchanged from the first half of 2024, but some firms saw much higher totals. The Public Resources Advisory Group took the top slot; it was credited by LSEG with $13.4 million, around $1 billion higher than a year earlier. PFM Financial Advisors once again came in second, working on $11 billion, compared to last year’s $6.33 billion. Frasca & Associates was the third biggest financial advisor, credited with $6.68 billion, followed by NW Financial and the Yuba Group.
