Bitcoin Is Trapped In A $10K Range: Here Is Why

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Lack of BTC spot market demand pressures short-term holders

Bitcoin spot market demand has not picked up and this is contributing to the lack of price stability. The 30-day apparent demand metic sits at -60,000 BTC, meaning more coins are moving out than being accumulated.

Cryptocurrencies, Funding, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Stablecoin, Market Analysis, Liquidity — *Bitcoin apparent demand(30-day sum). Source: CryptoQuant*

Stablecoin inflows into spot exchanges are often used as a sign of future buying power, and the metric is currently near $452 million. The level is close to a two-year low, showing limited new capital entering the market.

The short-term holders are adding another layer of pressure to BTC. The cohort’s realized price, or its average entry cost, is around $85,800. With Bitcoin trading far below that level, many recent buyers are holding unrealized losses.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr explained that two metrics show how this affects their behavior. The short-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR) tracks whether coins are sold at a profit or a loss.

A value below 1 means coins are being sold at a loss. Currently, the STH SOPR has stayed below 1.0 for over 110 days, showing consistent loss-taking.

At the same time, the short-term holder realized price year-on-year (YOY) has dropped to -5.35%, the first negative reading since the 2022 bear market. This confirms that losses are not short-lived and have persisted over the past few months.

When traders are underwater, the tendency to sell into small rallies and exit positions increases pressure and limits the upside, keeping the overall BTC market structure fragile.