'To the moon' or 'total crash'? Bitcoin price hits new 4-month highs

Bitcoin (BTC) spiked higher around the Jan. 17 Wall Street open as nervous analysts waited for further cues.

Opinions diverge over Bitcoin’s fate

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD briefly touching $21,594 on Bitstamp, marking its highest since Sep. 13.

As bullish impulses continued to hit the chart, reactions stayed conservative amid an atmosphere of suspicion over the true source of Bitcoin’s return to form.

One such cautious take came from Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, who eyed behavior around a key exponential moving average (EMA) across crypto.

“Food for thought; Total market capitalization and the altcoin market capitalization are both at the 200-day EMA’s, while Bitcoin is barely breaking it without any volume,” he noted.

“Markets are bottomed out, most likely, but gives a question whether we’ll be rallying from here.”

Popular trader Crypto Tony meanwhile advised “patience” when it came to going long BTC after more than a week of upside.

“Came up to the range high as anticipated yesterday. Today will be waiting for : – A push above and a retest to confirm a safe long position while we are above – A push above and a close below the range high. Short trigger,” part of analysis before the open stated.

As Cointelegraph reported, bearish predictions for the future of BTC price action accompanied each stage of its surge from its lowest levels in two years, these including a call for $12,000 to appear next.

Meanwhile, Cointelegraph readers themselves are becoming more optimistic on Bitcoin’s prospects.

Current responses to our latest Twitter survey favor the gains continuing, with 37% of more than 1,000 users believing Bitcoin is back on its trip “to the moon.”

Another 22%, however, fear current bullishness turning around to end in a “total crash.”

What’s your prediction for the market this week?

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) January 17, 2023

“Is Bitcoin back?”

Elsewhere, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode suggested a “wait and see” approach while discussing how long the good times might last.

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” researchers eyed key lines in the sand approaching for profitability versus supply.

Bitcoin’s adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR) metric is about to cross the 1 line from below, marking a potential key shift. Should it pass that line, hodlers will have an aggregate incentive to sell while in profit, possibly sparking a supply glut and sending the market lower once more.

Cointelegraph previously wrote about SOPR when it hit two-year lows in mid-November.

“With an explosive 23.3% rally to start off the year, a wide cross-section of Bitcoin investors (and miners) have seen their net holdings (and operations) return to a profit. This reflects the impact of both strong price appreciation, but also the tremendous volume of coins that changed hands over recent months, resetting their cost basis lower,” Glassnode concluded.

“With aSOPR and the Realized P/L Ratio testing a break-even value of 1.0, the test as to whether the market can hold onto these gains becomes the next big question.”

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.