Mortgage demand stalls as financial markets digest Trump presidency

Mortgage rates continued to climb last week as investors considered the future of the economy under a Trump presidency. The mortgage market basically took a breather.

Total application volume was essentially flat, rising just 0.5% last week, compared with the previous one, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. While tiny, the increase marked the first rise in overall demand in seven weeks.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances of $766,550 or less increased to 6.86% from 6.81%, with points decreasing to 0.60 from 0.68, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment.

“Mortgage rates continued to increase last week, driven by higher Treasury yields as financial markets digested the likely impacts of a Trump presidency,” said Joel Kan, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s deputy chief economist. “The Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut was already anticipated and did little to move the markets.”

Applications to refinance a home loan, which are most sensitive to weekly moves in interest rates, fell 2% for the week to the lowest level since May. They were, however, 43% higher than the same week one year ago. Last year at that time, mortgage rates were 75 basis points higher.

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 2% for the week and were 1% higher than the same week one year ago. Homebuyers may be looking at lower rates than last year, but they are also seeing higher home prices. Meanwhile, the supply of homes for sale remains lean.

Kan noted that applications for loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs helped drive stronger purchase activity, increasing 3% and 9%, respectively.

“FHA mortgage rates bucked the overall trend and were lower over the week, which likely helped some borrowers,” Kan said. “Conventional purchase applications were also up slightly.”

Mortgage rates moved higher this Tuesday; the bond market was closed Monday for the Veterans Day holiday.

“The market continues to work through election-related volatility,” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. “That involves a complex set of considerations. Some of them have to do with actual expectations for changes in fiscal policy in the coming years. Some of the considerations are as simple as traders going through the process of exiting (and re-setting) trading positions heading into the election.”