The End of Bitcoin Woes? BTCUSD Analysis October 11, 20223 min read
In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we examine a possible bottoming scenario in Bitcoin price based on a potential expanded flat correction and an ending diagonal.
Take a look at the video below:
VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): October 11, 2022
Bears and bulls are battling it out once again, each side trying to take control over daily momentum. Cycling through indicators like the Bollinger Bands and the Ichimoku show that Bitcoin isn’t looking very great at the moment. Only the Parabolic SAR is currently showing any type of indicator support below daily price action.
Why Bitcoin Could Spend Much More Time Moving Sideways
The LMACD shows that bulls still have the upper hand on the 3-day timeframe, and the last weekly candle closed with a confirmed bullish crossover on the same tool. The LMACD turning green from this level has put in the bottom during past bear markets.
But on monthly timeframes, bears have turned the histogram red after opening pink. Pink is a sign that bearish momentum is weakening. Unless Bitcoin stages an extremely fast reversal like 2018, there could be many more months of sideways ahead.
Comparing past bear market bottoms we can see that it took another 9 months after turning pink to flip green during the 2015 bear market, while it only took half that time during the 2018 bear market. With Bitcoin monthly momentum not even confirmed pink yet, the top cryptocurrency could have anywhere between 120 days and 275 days to go before things begin to turn around. Ouch.
Linear scale breakout leaves room leftover in log scale | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The End of The Expanded Flat Correction Is Near
In terms of a bottom, it could be near. Bitcoin appears to be finishing the last leg of an expanded flat correction. An expanded flat is an ABC correction with a higher high during the B wave, and a lower low at the C wave.
Expanded flats form in a 3-3-5 pattern, with two zig-zags and an impulse wave down. The C wave serves as the impulse wave with 5 sub-waves. Expanded flats typically terminate in the C wave at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the A wave. Taking the Fibonacci retracement tool set for the golden ratio extension, and the final wave five could be ending at the exact target.
Expanded flats commonly terminate with an ending diagonal in the fifth wave of the structure. An ending diagonal has five sub-waves itself, and looks like a falling wedge – a pattern that could be presently forming in Bitcoin if you turn on the line chart and remove wicks. With wicks removed, Bitcoin has made a new low below the wave 3 low, and could be in the midst of an ending diagonal before reversing.
The supplied diagrams show how the wave counts match up well enough, but is missing the final blow to bulls before the bottom is finally in. Don’t believe in such a thing as an ending diagonal? Check out how the same thing ended the bull market in 2021.
Where In The Overall Crypto Cycle Are We?
Finally, the last piece of the diagram we are comparing, is the placement of the expanded flat correction. Expanded flats appear either at a wave 2 or wave 4 during a larger impulse wave cycle. This means that either wave 5 is still left, or possibly waves 3, 4, and 5 remain.
In one scenario, Bitcoin bottomed in 2018, and the 2019 peak was wave 1, followed by wave 2 on Black Thursday. Then, wave 3 began in 2020 into 2021, and we’ve spent all of 2022 in wave 4 so far.
The alternate scenario makes the 2021 rally wave 1 of 5, and this current correction wave 2. The only way this is possible is if the entire 2018 bear market was part of a larger Elliott Wave triangle pattern. A triangle can be drawn, but it doesn’t quite fit the rules of Elliott Wave Theory.